The Forgotten Men (and Women) in Trump’s America

(They’re Not Who You Think They Are)

As I listened to right wing media breathlessly conjure a secret cabal of Left-Wing Illuminatis that conspired to steal the election from the president, I was reminded of Occam’s Razor, the principle that the simplest explanation for an occurrence is usually correct. There was, in fact, a conspiracy behind Biden’s election. But in this case, the secret order was not a small, coordinated, elite underground determined to elect their Manchurian candidate. It was a not-so-secret, not-so-coordinated confederacy of more than 79 million voters that decided that they had had enough of the president, thank you very much.

Trump’s claim that was amplified in the studios of Fox News was that he was a man of the people, the seer of the forgotten men and women of the country — the lifeblood of America that had become silenced by the barista-cratic elite. It was an everyman’s meme that suggested an oppressed majority that has been systemically overlooked and underappreciated.

It was also nothing more than a cynical adman’s drivel.

Because that oppressed majority has neither been oppressed, nor a majority.

It’s a raging minority that has co-opted the Republican party and its leadership — a poisonous and patrician band of self-righteous, evangelical, business, and gun toting nobility that wants to lord over the country, the wishes of the majority of the American people — the real forgotten men and women of this country — be damned.

Consider the seminal issues of our time.

Abortion rights. Since 1989, the largest percentage of individuals that favored the overturn of Roe vs. Wade was 36% (the range has consistently been plus/minus 30%)[1]. Yet, under Mitch McConnell’s long and successful reign of judicial king-making, the unspoken commitment to overturn Roe has arguably been the most important, and consistent, criteria for nomination.

Gun rights. Since the mass shooting at Sandy Hook elementary school, the percentage of Americans that want stricter laws on gun sales has risen steadily from 49% in 2013 to 64% in 2019[2]. Yet the Republican party has consistently blocked any legislation to enact even the most uncontroversial of restrictions — requiring background checks for the sale of guns privately or at gun shows (in 2017, 84% of Americans favored such measures[3]).

Immigration. While extremely contentious, there are some areas where there is little controversy. Regarding the president’s 2016 signature issue of building a wall (with, ahem, Mexico paying for it), only 40% of those surveyed favored such construction. Only 18% felt that illegal immigrants already residing in the country should be denied a pathway to citizenship. And only 15% of respondents were against the children of illegal immigrants obtaining citizenship[4]. Yet each of these are third-rail issues for Republicans, especially in the primaries where only candidates right of right are right.

The Pandemic. Pick your poll. Only a small minority of Americans approve of how the President has handled coronavirus. ABC/Ipsos — 35%[5]. FiveThirtyEight — 40%[6]. Reuters/Ipsos — 37%[7]. And with the US ranking 11th and 17th worst in per capita total deaths and new cases respectively out of more than 200 countries[8], the only question is how even 35–40% of the country consider such performance American Exceptionalism.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett. While the country was evenly split on whether or not Amy Coney Barrett should be confirmed to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court, there was no equivocation on whether she should have been considered in the first place (based upon precedent set by Mitch McConnel in 2016). According to one poll, “only 28% of registered voter respondents said Trump should fill the vacancy before the election”[9]. Yet once again, despite the lack of public support, the Republican party enacted its own agenda without even a hint of embarrassment.

The Affordable Care Act. Since 2014, when 50% of Americans viewed the Affordable Care Act as unfavorable, it has gained in popularity with only 39% viewing the law unfavorably prior to the election[10]. When asked how the Supreme Court should rule on the fate of the ACA (oral arguments were held November 10), only 32% were in favor of the court striking it down[11]. Even more telling, when asked if they favored a public option to compete with private insurance, only 25% were opposed[10]. Yes, comrades. Socialized medicine (which really isn’t socialized at all) is actually pretty popular.

The Economy. Unquestionably, prior to the onset of COVID, views on the economy were extremely favorable, with 63% of those surveyed rating it as good to excellent — the highest levels in 20 years[12]. However, in a different poll, only 44% of respondents believed that the president’s [emphasis added] policies made the economy better[13]. Moreover, seven months later, with a third wave of coronavirus cases sweeping the nation, the percentage of respondents feeling good about the economy fell nearly half to 33% [12]. Will the president’s no mask, no worry, no restrictions policies deliver enough economic gains to offset the increased spread (and deaths)? Unclear. But you’d have to resort to some squinty-eyed mental contortions to conclude that our near worst-in-the-world case and death rate will deliver a near best-in-the-world economic comeback.

Law and Order. Especially following the death of George Floyd, 59% of those surveyed considered violent crime important in casting their vote for president[14]. But here is another case in which Trump’s actions are so consistently inconsistent with public opinion. Despite his staged crackdown on protestors in Lafayette Square during a speech in which he crowned himself the law and order candidate, only 24% of the public felt that his handling of the post-Floyd protests made things better[15]. So, despite his exaltations, just 48% of those polled expressed confidence that Trump could maintain peace if reelected [15].

Climate Change. Even if you think it’s unsettled science, it’s not unsettled where most people stand. When the president withdrew the country from the historic Paris Climate agreement, only 33% of those surveyed supported the decision[16]. Moreover, as of August 2019, only 28% of respondents indicated that the United States was doing enough to address climate change[17].

On virtually every issue of importance, the president and the Republican party speak for a minority of Americans — in most instances less than 40%. So, Tucker, Laura, Sean, Rush, and all the other Fox and Friends, it’s time to stop pretending that your agenda is a populist one. That your breathless, patriotic incantations of “you, the American People” represent the common man. Common to your viewers? No doubt. But not to the country for which you have anointed yourselves holy defenders.

But here’s the thing.

With the right on the wrong side of the populous on virtually every issue, why wasn’t the election the blue wave that pollsters foresaw?

How did Trump cobble together 73,000,000 votes; more than 47% of those cast?

It clearly wasn’t about the issues. Or more precisely, a balanced and cumulative expression of the issues raised above.

Per a wise friend of mine, if you break it down, it’s actually not that hard to imagine where all those votes may have come from.

1. Pro-life evangelicals. Gallup estimates that as many as 40% of Americans identify as evangelical or “born-again”[18]. Of course, not all are single issue voters, but that group alone can get you a long way towards 47%.

2. Single issue wallet voters. Even though Biden’s tax plan calls for increases to only those taxpayers earning more than $400,000 per year (less than 5% of the population), the raise-taxes-bad meme frequently crowds out what the policies really mean.

3. The Believers. Anyone can lie. But real genius — Trump’s genius — is his ability to convey lies with such unwavering conviction that, for many, they become “true” in every sense of the word — accomplishments worthy of another term.

4. The Pissed-Off. We know these voters well, and they’re out there in drecks, I mean, droves. They bask in the president’s political incorrectness, his un-restrained name calling, his gleeful condemnation of the media, and his evisceration of elites, and support him for the pure joy of watching liberal snowflakes melt.

Taken together then, you could be forgiven for wondering how Trump didn’t win by landslide.

Good thing the Democrats, who typically can’t get out of their own way, somehow managed to infiltrate thousands of polling stations, software systems, vote tabulators, the postal system and the obituaries to steal the election from the president, while cleverly disguising their plot by not taking control of the senate.

Idiots.

[1] Gallup; https://news.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx

[2] Gallup: https://news.gallup.com/poll/1645/guns.aspx

[3] Pew Research Center America’s Complex Relationship with Guns; https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2017/06/22/views-on-gun-policy/

[4] Gallup: https://news.gallup.com/poll/1660/immigration.aspx

[5] The Hill: Almost 2 in 3 Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of pandemic; September 13, 2020; pollhttps://thehill.com/homenews/administration/516180-almost-2-in-3-americans-disapprove-of-trumps-handling-of-pandemic

[6] FiveThirtyEight; How Americans View The Coronavirus Crisis And Trump’s Response; November 5, 2020

[7] Reuters/Ipsos; Trump’s handling of coronavirus pandemic hits record low approval: Reuters/Ipsos poll; October 8, 2020; https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-coronavirus/trumps-handling-of-coronavirus-pandemic-hits-record-low-approval-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN26T3OF

[8] Our World in Data: Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) — the data; November 18, 2020; https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data

[9] Business Insider; POLL: 58% of American voters think the Senate should not fill Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Supreme Court vacancy until after the election; September 19, 2020; https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-senate-wait-2020-election-supreme-court-ruth-bader-ginsburg-2020-9

[10] Kaiser Family Foundation; 5 Charts About Public Opinion on the Affordable Care Act and the Supreme Court; October 16, 2020; https://www.kff.org/health-reform/poll-finding/5-charts-about-public-opinion-on-the-affordable-care-act-and-the-supreme-court/

[11] PollingReport.com; CNN/SSRS; Kaiser Family Foundation; https://www.pollingreport.com/health.htm

[12] Gallup; February 3–16, 2020; September 30-October 15, 2020; https://news.gallup.com/poll/1609/consumer-views-economy.aspx

[13] Pew Research Center; Public’s Views of Nation’s Economy Remain Positive and Deeply Partisan, July 25, 2019; https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/07/25/publics-views-of-nations-economy-remain-positive-and-deeply-partisan/

[14] Pew Research Center; Important issues in the 2020 election; August 13, 2020; https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/08/13/important-issues-in-the-2020-election/

[15] Monmouth University Polling Institute; Law & Order Seen As Major Problem; September 14, 2020; https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_091420/

[16] Business Insider; Washington Post/ABC poll: Nearly 60% of registered US voters oppose Trump’s decision to leave the Paris agreement; June 6, 2017; https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-paris-climate-accord-opposition-support-poll-2017-6

[17] Quinnipiac University Poll; August 29, 2019; https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3639

[18] Gallup; 5 Things to Know About Evangelicals in America; May 31, 2018; https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/235208/things-know-evangelicals-america.aspx